This is how to save the country from breaking apart

If the Parti Québécois returns to power in Quebec later this year, as polls show it might, expect Quebec’s demands on the rest of Canada to ramp up. And then expect western separatist sentiment to rise in tandem — or, at a minimum, for western alienation to spike.

I know of what I speak. I’m a non-separatist out West, born and raised in British Columbia. I’ve spent much of my public policy career in Alberta and B.C. Other Canadians should know that nothing drives westerners crazier than constantly catering to Quebec’s demands.

The best illustration of this is the 1992 Charlottetown Accord, the package of constitutional amendments that would have granted Quebec special status. Too many people forget that a greater proportion of British Columbians voted against the accord than did Albertans (68 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively). As post-referendum analyses found, many voters opposed Charlottetown in large part because of its proposed constitutional carve-outs for Quebec.

Historically, Canada’s chronic Quebec pandering was driven by the fear of separation. But we can now add to that traditional dynamic a new disruptive force: separatist sentiment in the West, especially in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Some might downplay or ignore the threat of western separatism. But that would be a mistake because irritation with Quebec and the danger of a western populist arising to foment even more separatist sentiment could ignite a tinderbox that would have devastating consequences for this country.

If you care to keep Canada together, stop preaching about unity for its own sake. Instead, call the bluff of Quebec separatists by refusing any new demands they place on the rest of Canada.

The reason for this tougher approach is straightforward: Western Canada has long been growing in economic clout and population vis-à-vis Quebec and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, the proportion of Quebecers likely to vote for separation is constantly shrinking due to immigration.

To grasp the changed dynamic, consider the provincial makeup of Canada in 1949, when the last province, Newfoundland and Labrador, joined Confederation. Then compare the numbers to Quebec’s referendum years and 2025, the year of the most recent federal election.

Canada’s population in 1949 was just under 13.5 million, with Quebec’s share at 28.9 per cent. In 1980, the year of Quebec’s first separation referendum, that proportion was 27 per cent. By the second referendum in 1995, Quebec’s share of Canada’s population was 25 per cent. As of 2025, Quebec’s share has dropped to just 21.9 per cent.

In contrast, Ontario’s proportion was 32.6 per cent in 1949 and 39 per cent in 2025. In 1949, B.C. represented 8.3 per cent of the population but rose to 13.8 per cent last year. Alberta’s proportion nearly doubled rising, from 6.6 per cent to 11.9 per cent in 2025.

Now compare Quebec with all four western provinces. Back in 1949, when Quebec was “worth” 28.9 per cent of Canada, the West’s share was 26.7 per cent. Last year, Quebec’s share was 21.9 per cent, with the four western provinces amounting to 32.3 per cent of Canada.

The detailed population statistics matter because there’s a clear, constant pattern: an ever-dominant Ontario, a declining Quebec and a rising West. It makes no sense to alienate the ever-more populous part of the country, the West, to cater to Quebec (separatists or federalists), when the latter is declining in influence.

And the future will be more of the same. By 2050, Statistics Canada forecasts that Quebec’s share of Canada’s population may be as low as 18.1  per cent, or as high at 19.1 per cent, whereas Alberta might be as high as 16.1 per cent of Canada’s population (or as low as 13.5 per cent).

Given Alberta’s consistent growth and Quebec’s relative decline, imagine a Canada where Alberta is almost as populous as Quebec. Or a scenario in which the four western provinces rise from just over 32 per cent of Canada’s population now, to between 35 per cent and 36 per cent in 2050. The West will thus have potentially double Quebec’s population with concurrent extra clout in the House of Commons.

That demographic reality is one reason why any new demands made by Quebec separatists will be a bluff that the rest of Canada should call. Another is that the majority of Quebecers are unlikely to ever vote for separation should a third referendum be held.

Some Canadians may remember how PQ Leader Jacques Parizeau blamed the “ethnics” for the 1995 referendum loss. His words were obnoxious but his analysis was correct: English-speakers and ethnic voters were far less likely to support independence. And the “ethnics,” not the ethnic French, are Quebec’s future.

In 1971, ethnic French-Canadians accounted for 79 per cent of the population. By 2030, that proportion will decline to 57 per cent. By 2050, “pure laine” Quebecois are forecast to make up just 45 per cent of the province’s population.

Put bluntly, Quebec separatists have increasingly less clout in their own province, and less leverage to use against the others. That province is not leaving Canada.

In the event of an uptick in separatist sentiment, some advice for other Canadians: call the bluff of Quebec separatists and make reasonable policy changes to address the reasonable concerns of western Canadians. That, too, will help alleviate western separatist sentiment. That is how you’ll save Canada.

Mark Milke is the president and founder of the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy and co-author of “Unequal Votes and Uneven Representation: Facts on Canada’s Parliament.” Photo: iStock.